HORSE RACING

• An Early look at the 2010 Kentucky Derby

  
  

  by Jeff Frank, Contributing Editor Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The last six years has brought the racing world three winning Kentucky Derby favorites (Big Brown, Street Sense and Smarty Jones), one second choice (Barbaro) and amazingly, two 50-1 shots (Mine That Bird and Giacomo). What will it be in 2010? The first Future Wager does not arrive until the second weekend in February but now's the time to get acquainted with the logical players as well as some longshots that warrant attention.

  The "big five" are Lookin At Lucky, Jackson Bend, Buddy's Saint, Super Saver and Noble's Promise. Those colts combined to win 17 of 25 races in 2009.

  Right underneath the early favorites are many three-year-olds that have shown early promise including Uptowncharlybrown, Kettle River, American Lion, Take Control, Tiz Chrome, Eightyfiveinafifty and Conveyance.

  Longshots that cannot be overlooked in the middle of January are Aikenite, Brake Lights, Schoolyard Dreams, Concord Point, Piscitelli, Tahitian Warrior and Winslow Homer.

  So let's get started with the road to the Kentucky Derby.

  THE TOP FIVE Lookin At Lucky needs no introduction. The Eclipse Award-winning, two-year-old won every single race last year except the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and the son of Smart Strike had a viable excuse that day breaking from the outside post (number 13) in the two-turn, 1 1/16 event.

  Ironically, that second-place finish was arguably his most impressive performance and the only time (in six career attempts) he broke the 90 barrier in terms of Beyer Speed Figures.

  He doesn't overpower his opponents as evidenced by four victories of one length or less. However, he does possess the same type of grit and determination as last year's Kentucky Derby runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile.

  Lookin At Lucky has also yet to race on true dirt since all six of his starts, including a win in the Cash Call Futurity last month, have come in California. That will change, however, as Bob Baffert stated he will run the two-year-old champ on the traditional surface leading up to the first Saturday in May.

  Another colt without a start on natural dirt is Noble's Promise. The third- place finisher in the BC Juvenile made a winning move at the top of the lane that day but couldn't hold off the late charges of Vale of York and Lookin At Lucky in the final strides.

  Noble's Promise came into that event on a three-race win streak, including the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, but has now lost two straight by less than a length after running a non-threatening second in the Cash Call Futurity. I would expect the bay colt to improve as the year progresses but he might be better off on turf compared to dirt and synthetics.

  Jackson Bend had the racing world buzzing this fall, especially after rallying to win the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion Stakes. The February foal stumbled badly at the start and then regained his form to win going away. It was his fifth straight victory, all at Calder Race Course.

  On the negative side, he's bred to be a sprinter and his competition has not been all that riveting. For example, Mr. Green, the horse that finished second in the other two Florida Stallion Stakes, has since been beaten in four straight starts.

  Another colt, Thank U Philippe came within a half-length of Jackson Bend through the stretch in the In Reality and then was pummeled by Buddy's Saint three weeks later in the Nashua Stakes by 12 lengths.

  Speaking of Buddy's Saint, he received a 101 Beyer for that effort in just his second career start. It was the single most impressive performance by any two- year-old in 2009. The Bruce Levine-trained colt followed that race with a 4 3/4-length thrashing of his competition in the two-turn Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in late November.

  Another horse to keep an eye on is Super Saver. The bay colt won just two of his four starts in '09 but he solidified himself as a top contender with a five-length, stakes record score in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs the same day Buddy's Saint won the Remsen.

  OTHER KEY CONTENDERS Tampa Bay Downs has never had the reputation of producing quality Kentucky Derby hopefuls but this year could be different. Uptowncharlybrown, who debuted in late December with a nine-length triumph, returned this past Saturday to win the Pasco Stakes by six dominant lengths.

  The Alan Seewald-trained three-year-old is a big striding colt that came from off-the-pace to win both starts, and since he's stabled at Tampa Bay Downs, he might not get as much publicity as the other top prospects. That could mean higher odds in the first Kentucky Derby future wager.

  Kettle River is another longshot possibility after winning earlier this month at Santa Anita. The son of Congaree failed to fire in his career debut on a sloppy track at Saratoga last August, but returned to break his maiden on the turf at Hollywood Park in mid-November.

  Compared to Uptowncharlybrown, his stride is extremely fluid and at times it appears he's carrying jockey Brice Blanc along for the ride. His allowance win two weeks ago was indicative of that as he knocked off a solid field, including The Program, who finished within two lengths of Lookin At Lucky in the Cash Call in his previous race.

  Trainer Eoin Harty, of Colonel John fame, also has American Lion in his stable. The Hollywood Prevue winner was a bit green on the track but has loads of potential.

  Bob Baffert trains a boatload of three-year-olds on the Derby trail this year. Besides Lookin At Lucky, other colts such as Take Control and Tiz Chrome have solid chances of crossing the wire first at Churchill Downs, while Conveyance could surprise down the road if he outruns his pedigree.

  Take Control won his debut with a 24-second final quarter at Santa Anita back on December 30 and his following will be huge considering he's the first foal from champion filly, Azeri.

  Tiz Chrome is 2-for-2, including a win in the restricted Stuka Stakes at 6 1/2- furlongs. Even though he's yet to race around two turns, his breeding suggests improvement as the distances increase.

  Conveyance ran his record to three straight victories in Saturday's San Rafael Stakes, but was pushed hard as the 3-10 favorite. Unlike Tiz Chrome, it doesn't appear 10 furlongs will be his preferred distance.

  Two other colts that bear watching are Eightyfiveinafifty and Aikenite.

  The former exploded onto the scene at Aqueduct on January 9 with a 17 1/4- length romp, running six furlongs in 1:10 4/5, two seconds faster than older allowance fillies and mares later on the card. On the negative side, winning a six-furlong sprint on the inner track at Aqueduct is a lot different than going 1 1/4-miles at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Only time will tell if this explosive colt can get the job done.

  Aikenite rallied for second behind Noble's Promise in the Breeders' Futurity before a very impressive fifth-place finish in the BC Juvenile. In that race, he closed stoutly through the stretch but was caught in between Vale of York and Lookin At Lucky, and jockey Alan Garcia had to steady him nearing the wire. Look for Aikenite to make his '10 debut vs. Jackson Bend and Winslow Homer in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park this Saturday.

  THE INITIAL JEFF FRANK TOP 12 The list is not based on what these three-year-olds have accomplished up to this point. It's geared more towards how they'll progress throughout the spring.

  1) Buddy's Saint; 2) Uptowncharlybrown; 3) Kettle River; 4) Lookin At Lucky; 5) Super Saver; 6) Tiz Chrome; 7) Aikenite; 8) Eightyfiveinafifty; 9) Take Control; 10) Jackson Bend; 11) American Lion; 12) Noble's Promise.

  HORSE OF THE YEAR Congratulations go out to the voters who propelled Rachel Alexandra over Zenyatta in the race for Horse of the Year honors. It's been five years since I was fortunate enough to take part in the Eclipse Award voting process but if I was still able to mark one of the ballots, the three-year-old filly champion would have been the obvious choice.

  Rachel Alexandra won all eight of her races over traditional dirt, unlike Zenyatta who was five-for-five on synthetics. It's true the latter knocked off older males in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but winning three races over colt, as Rachel did, was an unprecedented feat for a three-year-old filly, and that's why she deserved to win the award.

  More important than the Horse of the Year voting was the announcement over the weekend that Zenyatta will race in 2010. Hopefully these two great female stars will finally meet and settle the argument on the racetrack instead of in the ballot box.

  01/19 14:41:40 ET