FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP SUBDIVISION

• Around FCS: A final weekend primer

  
  

  By David Coulson, FCS Executive Director Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - During a Thursday afternoon shopping excursions, I couldn't help but notice that my ears were being bombarded by Christmas music.

  Here Thanksgiving isn't until next week and those greedy retail outlets are trying to coerce our thoughts towards Christmas shopping.

  Like most folks who follow the Football Championship Subdivision, I'd rather keep my mind on the final weekend of the regular season and how it will impact the selection of the 16-team playoff field that will be unveiled on Sunday afternoon at 3 p.m. eastern time on ESPNews.

  One thing that the FCS postseason may have in common with Santa Claus is that just about all FCS fans, this writer included, are making their lists and checking them twice, to find out which teams have been naughty, or nice.

  You can't go on any team, or national FCS message board this week and not find people discussing topics such as who should get the top-four seeds, who the various playoff squads might match up with, or who will travel where.

  Even social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter have jumped on board with the playoff discussions.

  While everyone has an opinion this weekend, it will be the 10-member NCAA Division I football committee that will have the final say on the 16-team field.

  But until then, the playoff debate will rage. And with that in mind, here is a primer for the final weekend of the regular season.

  WHO IS ALREADY IN? This is the final year of the 16-team bracket and the field will be evenly divided between eight automatic bids and eight at-large selections. The field will expand to 20 teams, with two additional auto bids and two more at-large berths in 2010, but spots in the field will be at a premium on Sunday.

  Three auto bids are still in play on Saturday, but Montana (Big Sky Conference), South Carolina State (Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference), Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley Football Conference), Holy Cross (Patriot League) and Appalachian State (Southern Conference) have clinched berths.

  COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION Villanova controls its own destiny in the CAA and can win both the auto bid and a share of the league title with a victory at home over arch-rival Delaware in the Battle of the Blue on Saturday afternoon.

  Richmond and William & Mary face off in the oldest rivalry of the south on Saturday, with the winner claiming a share of the CAA title. But both teams would need an upset win by Delaware to win the CAA outright and steal the auto bid from Villanova.

  Villanova holds tiebreakers over both Richmond and William & Mary with head- to-head victories.

  New Hampshire played itself out of title contention with its 20-17 loss at William & Mary last week, but will claim the North Division crown outright and pretty much finish off an at-large bid with a victory over Maine.

  OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE Eastern Illinois missed a chance to become the sixth team in the field when the Panthers lost 21-10 at home against Tennessee State Thursday night in Ohio Valley Conference play.

  EIU is still alive for an auto bid and would back into the field if Eastern Kentucky loses at No. 17-ranked Jacksonville State on Saturday afternoon. Should Eastern Kentucky win, the Colonels would earn the OVC's auto bid at the league champion for the third consecutive season.

  Jacksonville State is ineligible for the playoffs, due to NCAA Academic Performance Report sanctions.

  SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE In the Southland Conference, Stephen F. Austin can clinch the auto bid by beating arch-rival Northwestern State on the road on Saturday. Northwestern State is winless this season, but will be motivated to try to win back the 7- foot-6, 320-pound wooden Indian, Chief Caddo.

  Should SFA lose, McNeese State can grab the bid by beating Central Arkansas at home. If both SFA and McNeese State fall, Texas State can work its way into the championship picture by beating Sam Houston State at home.

  But such a scenario would give the auto bid to Stephen F. Austin, due to Texas State's 51-50 overtime loss to Southeastern Louisiana and SFA's 16-12 win over McNeese State.

  Southeastern Louisiana was eliminated from contention on Thursday night when it was stunned at home by Nicholls State, 45-30.

  THE AT-LARGE BERTHS Once the eight auto bids are filled, the committee will turn its focus to the eight at-large berths and Sunday's process will be one of the most difficult for the committee in several years.

  Win, or lose on Saturday, you would have to think that the CAA will claim three at-large slots from amongst New Hampshire, Richmond, William & Mary and Villanova after one of the teams earns the auto bid. All four have beaten FBS opponents and their only losses have been to each other.

  Considering the committee has taken a four-loss CAA team the past two years, Delaware would like to think it is a candidate if it beats Villanova to finish 7-4.

  But the Blue Hens have to be considered a long shot and would need a chaotic Saturday of other upsets around the country to work their way into the at- large debate.

  PROBABLY IN With eight wins already, Elon is probably in, regardless of its game on Saturday at Samford. But the Phoenix have fallen short with late-season collapses the past two years and don't want to cast doubts with committee members by closing the regular-season with back-to-back losses.

  Elon watched the SoCon auto bid slip away last weekend with a 27-10 loss at home to Appalachian State.

  With it being unlikely that McNeese State will earn an auto bid, the Cowboys have a solid resume to get into the playoffs, win or loss on Saturday. But McNeese State doesn't want to take any chances by losing to Central Arkansas.

  McNeese State's top win was a 40-35 victory over then-No. 2-ranked Appalachian State on the day that the Mountaineers were re-christening Kidd Brewer Stadium.

  The Cowboys beat defending Southland Conference champion Texas State 30-27 when the Bobcats were ranked in the top-25 and have a quality loss to in-state FBS opponent Tulane (42-32). On the flip side was a narrow win over Division II Henderson State.

  NEEDING TO WIN The rest of the at-large candidates definitely must win to gain playoff entry.

  Coming out of the top-heavy MVFC, Northern Iowa has been ranked in the top-10 for most of the season, is currently at No. 9 and has also been one of the highest rated teams in the Gridiron Power Index, the FCS equivalent of the BCS ratings.

  A win at Illinois State would be the eighth for the Panthers and should punch their ticket for the playoffs, considering that UNI's only losses have been to No. 1-ranked Southern Illinois, No. 12 South Dakota State and by one point to an Iowa squad that was undefeated until two weeks ago and had been one of the top BCS clubs most of the year.

  The Panthers completely outplayed Iowa, but lost when two field goals were blocked in the final seconds. On the downside, UNI's best win was against Missouri State, the fourth-best MVFC team.

  A loss to an Illinois State squad that is 5-5 overall and 4-3 in the MVFC would ruin UNI's at-large hopes.

  Like UNI, South Dakota State should be in with a victory at Western Illinois. The Jackrabbits would also be 8-3 with a win and would finish in second place behind Southern Illinois in conference.

  SDSU holds that win over UNI and two quality losses against Southern Illinois and Minnesota. The 16-13 defeat at Minnesota was gut-wrenching for the Jackrabbits, because they had every chance to win the game and three costly turnovers tipped the game the Golden Gophers' way.

  A victory over Minnesota would have pretty much sealed SDSU's first FCS at- large berth, but the Jackrabbits should be okay, going against a Western Illinois team that is 1-9, in last place in the MVFC and hasn't won since Don Patterson stepped down as coach with health concerns.

  South Dakota State also had a loss at Cal Poly when the Mustangs were ranked in the top-25 and before they were decimated by injuries. But an extenuating factor was that the Jackrabbits lost starting senior quarterback Ryan Crawford to a knee injury in that game.

  FIGHTING FOR THE FINAL SPOT If all of those teams take care of business, that leaves four or five two-and three-loss squads fighting for the final at-large berth and several others just outside of that group.

  The pecking order for these schools would seem to be Eastern Washington and Montana State from the Big Sky Conference, three-time Big South champion Liberty and two ranked Patriot League squads, Lafayette and Colgate.

  THE BIG SKY Eastern Washington has done a remarkable job holding itself together and could finish with an 8-3 mark by winning a tough road game at Northern Arizona on Saturday.

  The Eagles were placed on probation before the season and given a postseason ban, but an NCAA appeals committee overturned that harsh penalty to give the senior-oriented squad a mid-season boost.

  Two of EWU's three losses were to highly-ranked teams from Montana and Weber State in back-to-back weeks and the other was a 59-7 trouncing by the California Golden Bears. The Eagles are ranked 18th nationally and are rated 11th in the GPI.

  Eastern Washington has only one signature win, a 35-24 victory over a ranked Montana State team and might also be hurt by the fact one its wins was against non-Division-I Western Oregon.

  That victory over Montana State could be the difference between EWU making the postseason, or sitting at home, if Montana State also wins on Saturday.

  In 2006, Montana State and Portland State battled for the final spot in the field with 7-4 records and both had wins over FBS opponents. Montana State stunned Colorado and PSU toppled Montana that year, but Montana State won the bid with a 14-0 victory over the Vikings.

  At the same time, it would be shocking to think that Montana State could finish 8-3 by beating a previously unbeaten Montana squad and not be included in the 16-team field. There would also be a win over a ranked Weber State team on their resume.

  But the Bobcats are ranked just 23rd in the country and are only 20th in the GPI. Montana State's losses were a 44-3 bombing at Michigan State, a 23-10 defeat at home against Northern Arizona and that setback against Eastern Washington.

  The Bobcats also have a tight win against a non-Division-I foe, Dixie State, 23-20 and an overtime 31-24 victory against an FCS transitional opponent, South Dakota. Of course, Montana State's chances of beating Montana would seem to be small.

  BEST OF THE REST Liberty had every reason to feel snubbed when the committee left the talented Flames out of the 2008 field with a 10-2 record and a 26-3 win over Elon in what many observers thought was a de facto play-in game. Instead, the committee made the unpopular decision to take a four-loss Maine club as the fourth at- large team from the CAA.

  It will be interesting to see if the heat that the committee took for that move will result in an at-large bid for Liberty this season.

  The Flames are currently 8-2 and have won a share of the Big South championship. Liberty can capture the title outright with a victory at Stony Brook on Saturday.

  Liberty isn't as talented as it was in 2008, but the Flames don't have the albatross of a loss to an FCS transitional team like they did when they were beaten by Presbyterian last year.

  On the plus side of Liberty's ledger are two quality losses to West Virginia (33-20) and James Madison (24-10, when the Dukes were ranked seventh nationally) and a 19-13 road win at No. 21-ranked Lafayette.

  It is also interesting to compare Liberty's 54-14 victory over VMI with Richmond's unimpressive 38-28 win over the Keydets, both triumphs coming at home venues.

  Liberty is also ranked 16th nationally and is likely to move up at least one spot in the final regular season Sports Network poll.

  The Flames are 17th in the GPI, despite playing a weak schedule that includes a 45-7 victory over West Virginia Wesleyan and wins over transitional teams from North Carolina Central and Presbyterian.

  Lafayette can finish 9-2 with a win over Lehigh in the hotly-combated, nation's most-played rivalry on Saturday. Some detractors like to pan the Leopards' schedule, but those folks truly have little clue about how good of a season that Lafayette has had.

  Lafayette's only losses are to Liberty and No. 13 Holy Cross by two points (28-26) in the Patriot League title game last week. The Leopards are 26th in the GPI and have wins over two ranked opponents, No. 24 Penn and No. 22 Colgate, as well as a quality win at Harvard.

  The detractors should give more weight in particular to the win over Penn. The Quakers are the Ivy League champs, have the top-ranked defense in FCS and limited No. 2 ranked Villanova to one offensive touchdown in a 14-3 loss.

  Colgate would be a stronger candidate in most years after finishing last week with a 9-2 record. But despite being one of three ranked teams from the Patriot League, the Raiders don't have the signature wins that most other playoff contenders do.

  None of the teams Colgate has beaten currently have a winning record and only Monmouth and Stony Brook are at the .500 mark. The Raiders are also just 37th in the GPI.

  Central Connecticut State can finish 9-2 and win the Northeast Conference by beating St. Francis Saturday on the road, but other than a 33-14 loss to William & Mary, the Blue Devils' schedule is weak. CCSU can also count on a postseason game in the Gridiron Classic by winning on Saturday.

  The Pioneer Football League has never received an at-large berth and isn't likely to change that this year, despite having Butler, Dayton and Drake squads with only five combined losses. The winner of that league will host the NEC champion in the Gridiron Classic.

  Florida A&M had a chance to contend for an at-large spot until it lost 25-0 at Howard last weekend. The Rattlers can finish off the year at 8-3 by beating rival Bethune-Cookman in the Florida Classic, but FAMU's best win was an overtime decision to Morgan State.

  ON THE OUTSIDE Weber State would like to feel it still has a chance by beating Cal Poly and finishing 7-4 and there is no doubt that the No. 19 Wildcats are talented enough to beat probably any other team likely to be in the field.

  Weber State is rated 14th in the GPI, largely due to its strength of schedule.

  But WSU has displayed a tendency for losing tight games, as displayed by defeats to Wyoming (29-22), Colorado (24-23) and Montana State (26-21). There was also a 31-10 loss at Montana.

  The Wildcats' best wins were a 31-13 victory at Eastern Washington and last weekend's 27-9 win over Northern Arizona. But that isn't likely to be enough to get one of last year's quarterfinalists back into the tournament.

  AND NOW, THE SEEDS The committee will also be pulling out their hair trying to determine what teams to give seeds. Right now, probably six teams have a shot at one of those coveted four slots, Southern Illinois, Villanova, Montana, Richmond, Appalachian State and William & Mary.

  SIU, Villanova, Montana and ASU should be heavy favorites in games against Southeast Missouri State, Delaware, Montana State and Western Carolina, while most would view the Richmond-William & Mary game as a toss-up.

  With wins, Southern Illinois, Villanova and Montana are pretty much shoe-ins for the top three seeds with wins, though it could be in any order. The winner of the Richmond-William & Mary game will then be battling Appalachian State for the final seed.

  No. 4 Richmond has only a one-point loss to Villanova blemi