SPORTS BETTING

• Surprising teams: Will they keep it up?

  Posted on Wed, 17 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT by GetChalk

  
  

  With the MLB All-Star break now less than a month away, it’s a good time to assess the clubs that have played above bettors’ expectations so far. While most teams that roared out of the gate in April have begun to regress to the mean – or at least to where sportsbooks thought they’d be back in spring training – there’s more than a couple of baseball betting outliers still lurking.

  Look no further than the National League West, where both the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have surprised in the first half of the season. It’s no surprise the Dodgers (43-22, +18.38 units) are in first place in the division, only that they’re the most profitable wager in baseball to go along with having the best record in the standings.

  What’s more impressive is Los Angeles is getting it done at the window without the suspended Manny Ramirez. The Dodgers are 21-14 (+5.06 units) against the moneyline since Ramirez was hit with his 50-game penalty for violating MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy, and they’re likely to keep it going in the pedestrian NL West. There’s no reason L.A. can’t keep the good times rolling because of their balanced offense, top-ranked pitching staff (3.57 ERA), and, well, because Manny is coming back in three weeks.

  The Giants (34-30, +4.11 units) are currently seventh on the moneylist, and that’s stunning considering their offensive output. San Francisco is 28th in runs per game (4.05) and has only 17 total homers on the season, but is in the thick of the NL Wild Card race nonetheless. 2008 Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (6-1, 2.66 ERA) has been stellar and Matt Cain (9-1, 2.39 ERA) has been even better, but two pitchers doesn’t make a team.

  Expect the Giants to take a step back, even if it’s only back to .500 baseball. They’ll probably be overvalued on the betting odds board in the second half after Lincecum and Cain make the NL All-Star team, so the money is going to dry up unless the front office adds a bat – or eight – to the lineup.

  Over in the American League West, the Texas Rangers (36-27, +10.13 units) are the best bet in MLB not named the Dodgers, but expect that to change in the short and long term. +23 in the run differential column isn’t a good harbinger of things to come for a team that’s nine games over .500, not to mention the Rangers’ best hitter (Josh Hamilton) and best pitcher (Frank Francisco) are on the 15-day disabled list.

  The Toronto Blue Jays (35-31, -0.43 units) were the biggest shock in the early going, leading the AL East through mid-May. That’s no easy task in a division that houses last season’s AL representatives in the World Series (Tampa Bay), the biggest spenders in professional sports (New York), and likely the best futures bet of the three (Boston). Coming into the season, most cappers banked on the Jays to do no better than even on the moneyline, with a last-place finish a distinct possibility.

  The good fortune is likely coming to an end. Don’t ask me how the Jays made it this far with the current roster, but they did, and it’s a testament to manager Cito Gaston. In a starting rotation that featured Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch last season (86-76, +2.27 units), only the bankable Doctor (10-1, 2.53 ERA) is pitching for Toronto right now.

  Burnett is in pinstripes, while McGowan (shoulder), Marcum (elbow), and Litsch (forearm) are all out for the season. Even Halladay is missing his next start with a groin strain, so good luck making money with the Jays in the second half. There’s no way Toronto can keep it together in the AL East with all those injuries to its staff and supposed No. 3 hitter Vernon Wells batting .237.